Football Betting Now
NFL THURSDAY TRIPLE YOUR WINNINGS
2010-12-02
Wager on the Longest Touchdown of the Game (Link to Sport Type 2007) prop for tonight’s Texans vs Eagles game. If the longest TD of the game occurs in the 4th Quarter, winning wagers will be tripled up to $200.00 for this specific prop. Terms & Conditions apply (Link to pop-up with T&C’s below)
Terms & Conditions
• Registration is not required for this promotion; you must simply make a wager on the ‘Longest Touchdown of the Game’ prop for tonight’s Texans vs Eagles game (December 2, 2010).
• Wager on the ‘Longest Touchdown of the Game’ prop for tonight’s Texans vs Eagles game. If the longest TD of the game occurs in the 4th Quarter, winning wagers will be tripled up to $200.00 for this specific prop.
• This specific promotion only applies to the ‘Longest Touchdown of the Game’ prop for the Texans vs Eagles game on December 2, 2010.
• ESPN.com will be used for grading purposes for this promotion.
• Bonus winnings will be credited into your account within 24 hours after the completion of tonight’s game.
• Standard rollover requirements apply for all bonus winnings associated with this promotion.
• This promotion can be modified or canceled at anytime.
House Rules apply.
PLAYERSONLY AND SUPERBOOK
Football betting: Colts favored to win Super Bowl XLV2010-08-25Despite coming up short in last year's Super Bowl, the Indianapolis Colts enter the 2010 NFL campaign as the favorite to take home the Vince Lombardi Trophy. In the football betting lines at www.sportsbook.com, the Colts are a +700 choice to win a championship. Led by MVP quarterback Peyton Manning, Indianapolis has won 12 or more games in the regular season in each of the last seven years. However, the Colts have been able to cash in with only one Super Bowl title back in 2006. This season, Indy will face a challenging stretch following a bye in week 7.
After the bye, the Colts will play seven straight games against squads that finished .500 or better in 2009. Five of those games will be against clubs that went to the postseason last year. The franchise that will showcase its home stadium in Super Bowl XLV is the top contender from the NFC. The Dallas Cowboys (+800) are looking to take the next step in 2010 after gaining a playoff win in 2009 for the first time in over a decade. With a talented and balanced squad, the Cowboys could be ready to be an elite club in 2010. There could be a potential Super Bowl preview in week 13 when the Cowboys travel to Indianapolis to face the Colts.
In the prior week, Dallas will entertain the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints on Thanksgiving Day. New Orleans listed at www.sportsbook.com at (+800) is the third top contender in the Super Bowl pool. Quarterback Drew Brees leads an explosive offense for the Saints. While the defense gave up plenty of yards last season, the unit had a knack of creating big plays with turnovers. After opening at home against Minnesota in a rematch of the NFC Championship game, New Orleans will face only one playoff team from 2009 over its next nine games.
The San Diego Chargers are the next choice at +1000. San Diego has won four straight AFC West titles but has been unable to reach a Super Bowl during the stretch. In a division that appears to be the weakest in the conference, the Chargers have a decent shot to gain home field advantage in the AFC Playoffs. San Diego will only have to face four teams this year that reached the postseason in 2009. The Green Bay Packers (+800) appear to have made a nice transition from the Brett Favre era after making the playoffs last year behind emerging quarterback Aaron Rodgers. If the Packers are going to become a legitimate contender in 2010, the club will need to matchup better against the Vikings (0-2 vs. Minnesota in 2009).
In a period of under a month, Green Bay will face defending NFC North champion Minnesota twice. The first meeting will be a Sunday night contest at Lambeau Field in week 7. In week 11, the Packers will battle the Vikings at the Metrodome.
The New England Patriots (+1200) were the NFL's top squad in the last decade with three championships. However, the Patriots last Super Bowl crown was back in 2004. Quarterback Tom Brady will try to get his club back to the top this season in a deep AFC field. In its first seven games of the season, New England will face five teams that reached the playoffs in 2009.
A popular team in football betting circles heading into 2010 is the Baltimore Ravens (+1200). Behind young quarterback Joe Flacco, the Ravens have reached the postseason in each of the last two years as a Wild Card. While Baltimore has won three road playoff games since 2008, the team would like to take an easier path this season as a division champion. The addition of veteran wideout Anquan Boldin should enable the Ravens offense to be a little more dangerous this season. Baltimore's initial five road games of 2010 will be against squads that posted winning records in 2009.
The Super Bowl hopes of the Minnesota Vikings (+1200) could be derailed before the season begins. If Brett Favre decides not to return for a second year with the Vikings, Minnesota will have to rely on a couple of marginal quarterbacks in 2010. Without Favre, the Vikings go from a legitimate title contender to a squad that will have to battle just to reach the playoffs.
Past Super Bowl Handicapping Trends & Stats by Steve Makinen2010-02-03Miami hosts this year’s Super Bowl XLIV matchup between New Orleans and Indianapolis, and being as how the Colts’ Super Bowl win in the same city three years ago was marred by quagmire-like conditions, a game that went under the total, it would be a wise move to check the forecasts on Sunday morning before hitting the confirm button on you wagers. Ironically, the pointspread for that game (Colts -6.5 over Bears) is similar to this year’s contest (Colts -5.5 over Saints), despite the fact that again, the NFC team boasts better all-around stats from the season. Does that mean we should expect a repeat of that game, or is New Orleans fully capable of pulling the upset? While we’re thinking of it, is there anything else from past Super Bowl action that can be used to handicap this year’s game? Let’s dig through the history of the Super Bowl and see what we can come up with.
Before beginning, one word of caution always has to accompany an article surrounding Super Bowl handicapping, and that is to remember that it is simply one game, the singular most wagered event in all of sports, and thus heavily weighted by oddsmakers to attract public action. How else could one explain that Indy is the favorite of 5.5-points, despite having a lesser scoring differential against a weaker schedule? Let’s face it, the line was initially set up at Indy -4 because of the “Peyton Manning Factor”, and has been bet upward since due to bettors’ fascination with him. Still, being as how it is just one game, I caution you to wager wisely, as no one game should outweigh a season’s worth of hard work or a springtime of gambling debt.
The Super Bowl game line is set up differently than one in the regular season, simply because of the vast number of amateurs partaking in the betting festivities for perhaps their only time all year. It’s kind of like going to church on Christmas, with the priest adjusting his message for the rare visitors. In the same way, oddsmakers adjust their line-setting policies. In other words, a “square” line typically becomes even more square. If you do a search on “NFL Power Ratings” currently, you’ll find that most sites indicate the line for this year’s game should be between Indy -2 and New Orleans -2. The current line is much higher. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side. That is the reason for the inflated line, but according to the BETTING TRENDS analysis on page 5, even the current line has yet to accomplish that goal. We’ll see how it plays out over the remainder of the week.
The other challenge that faces bettors is that the Super Bowl offers some variation from the normal handicapping routine. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. If you choose to wager on numerous different options, be prepared to find yourself conflicted near the end of the game. As always, it does pay off to do your homework.
Hopefully, with everything we’re offering for Sunday’s New Orleans-Indianapolis showdown, you will at least go into the betting process prepared. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I’m here to do now, as I look back at 43 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you’ll need to make educated selections.
Super Bowl Stat Angles
Because of the extra week of preparation and the neutral field environment, neither team in a Super Bowl game will have any artificial advantages. Both are quality teams with exceptional coaching staffs, so they will be prepared to play. As was proven two years ago in the Giants mega-upset of the Patriots, there is no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl. What I’m getting at is that winning games of this magnitude comes down to execution. Some teams might show up planning to pull a few gimmicks, but they won’t be able to do so for the full 60 minutes. The eventual winner is the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays, and avoids catastrophic mistakes like turning the ball over. In past Super Bowls, the team that accomplished these goals has nearly always came out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.
Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that I like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.
* Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-8 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).
* Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 38-5 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).
* In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (85%). Amazingly, the last three times it happened straight up were the Steelers’ last three world championships.
* Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-12 SU & 30-10-3 ATS (75%).
* Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-2 SU & 32-5-1 ATS (86%). In ’09, Arizona ran for more yards, turned the ball over fewer times, and possessed the ball longer than Pittsburgh to cover the pointspread, yet lost on the scoreboard.
* Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.
Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Last year I cited the 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh as the game that dramatically changed the route to becoming a champion in the NFL. That was the first time a #6 seed emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. Since then we have seen wildcard teams Indianapolis & the Giants win titles. In last year’s game, we had a team that won just nine games in the regular season come within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. While the Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion, they still managed to cover the pointspread, again defying all that we had come to learn about Super Bowl handicapping prior to ’06. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs. Well, thankfully, order has been restored to the NFL playoff system, as two #1 seeds will be playing for all the marbles on Sunday, for the first time in 16 years.
With that cautionary note out of the way, here are some historical Super Bowl trends, stats, and other tidbits that you can either use to handicap Sunday’s game, or at the very least, offer up at your parties to show off in front of game-watching friends. While on that subject, you can start off by “wow-ing” your company with this bit of interesting Super Bowl history: In the last nine Super Bowl games, there have been NINE different NFC representatives, but just four from the AFC. Enjoy the trends, where appropriate I will give the most recent game trend.
ATS and Money Line Trends
* Favorites in the Super Bowl are 30-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-19-3 (52.5%). However, over the past eight years, the underdog owns a 6-2 ATS (75.0%) edge. The only two favorites to win and cover in that span were Indy in ’07 and Pittsburgh in ’06.
* Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. It doesn’t appear that this year’s line will reach that high, but be sure to follow throughout the week.
* The straight up winner is 34-6-3 ATS (85%) in the 43 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-3 ATS the past six years.
* The NFC holds a 22-21 SU and 22-18-3 (55%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in ’03.
* #1 seeds from the NFC are on a 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS slide since 2001 in the Super Bowl.
* The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-11-2 ATS (8.3%) in the last 14 Super Bowl games! This would be our golden nugget except for the fact that both Indianapolis and New Orleans were #1 seeds out of their respective conferences.
* The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)
* Teams playing in their first Super Bowl against an experienced club are 5-2-1 ATS in their L8.
* In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.1 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.4 PPG, an average winning margin 14.7 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.
* There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record…0-17 SU & ATS (0%).
Over/Under Trends
* The most important point to note about the total for this year’s Super Bowl, set at 56.5 at presstime, is the HIGHEST EVER in the history of the game.
* Overall, in the 25 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the OVER is 15-9-1.
* There have been 45.4 PPG scored in the Super Bowl on average, however, over the last five years, that figure is just 40.6. In fact, last year’s game snapped a string of four straight UNDER’s, and was the highest scoring Super Bowl since ’04, despite having the lowest total.
* The last five Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 47 or higher have gone UNDER.
* The ’09 Super Bowl was one of only 10 in history that saw both teams reach the 20-point mark. All seven that had totals were OVER’s.
* The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 15 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 21.5 PPG. However, a caveat, the last two OVER games (’04 & ’09) were decided by 3 & 4 points.
NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles by round in the playoffs, here are some trends and the qualifying play for this Sunday’s game based upon teams’ stats headed into the big game. If the stat isn’t listed here, there wasn’t any significant trend forming.
* Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating have lost four straight games against the spread.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the better won-lost record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-9-2 ATS (31%) slide.
- Qualifiers for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
* The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 1-8-1 ATS (10%) over the last decade.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team that converts a better percentage of 3rd down attempts headed into the Super Bowl is just 2-7-1 ATS (20%) in the L10 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
* The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per rushing attempt on offense is 9-5-2 ATS (64%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: On NEW ORLEANS
* The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per passing attempt on offense is just 4-8-2 ATS (64%) in the L14 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the edge in offensive yards per point is on a 2-6 ATS (25%) slide in the L8 Super Bowl games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 0-6 ATS (0%) over the L6 years.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS
* The Super Bowl team that allows yards per rushing attempt on defense is 3-8-2 ATS (27%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ‘10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS
If you were counting, that was five Against New Orleans, and four either Against Indianapolis or On the Saints. Is that a hint of what’s to come? Enjoy the action, and good luck from everyone at StatFox!
NFL: ARIZONA at NY GIANTS 2009-10-26The Giants were blasted at New Orleans last week by the passing of Drew Brees, suffering their first loss of the season. Up next is a club with another prolific passing attack, Arizona, who comes off its best game of the season, a 27-3 win at Seattle. The big differences in this one is that New York will be at home, and playing as a 7-point favorite at Sportsbook.com.
Fortunately for New York, the Cardinals haven’t had anywhere near the consistency of the Saints. The defending NFC champs have won back-to-back games for the first time in ’09 and are riding a 4-game ATS road winning streak. The Giants are 2-0 at home this year, outscoring opponents 33.5-12.0, and are on a 13-4 ATS run as chalk. Road teams are on a 6-3 ATS run in the L9 games of this H2h series, and under the total has converted in six of the last eight.
Aside from winning at Carolina in the divisional round of last season’s NFL playoffs, Arizona doesn’t have too many recent positive experiences with traveling to the East Coast. Even in making a Super Bowl run last season, the Cardinals had their wings clipped in visits to New England, Philadelphia, the New York Jets, Carolina and Washington, losing all five games by an average of 19.9 points. On top of that, the Giants went into Phoenix last November and walked away with a 37-29 victory.
Last week’s 27-3 win in Seattle did nothing to prepare Arizona for what awaits at the Meadowlands this Sunday. The Giants, one of Kurt Warner’s former teams, have never been kind as an opponent. In six games they’ve sacked him 18 times, and even after last week’s 48-27 thumping in New Orleans their defense still ranks among the NFL’s best.
Despite a season-ending knee injury to safety Kenny Phillips, and the absence of cornerback Aaron Ross for the first six games due to a hamstring injury, teams were averaging an unbelievable 104.8 yards per game before New Orleans. Drew Brees threw for 369 yards and four scores, so Warner represents a critical test for Big Blue. The saving grace is the fact that the Cardinals are a one-dimensional offense.
Quarterback protection has been a major issue in the Cardinals two losses, as they’ve allowed seven sacks. In three wins, Warner has been dropped just four times.
The Giants bring one of the most balanced offensive attacks to the table, and that could be a problem for an Arizona defense currently ranked No. 1 stopping the run (59.6 yards per game), but dead last against the pass (273.2). Eli Manning’s receivers have proven to be quick studies and actually have more big plays than Arizona’s much-discussed duo of Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. The offense has completed 24 passes of more than 20 yards, and Manning has thrown just three interceptions in 166 attempts.
Since the start of this century, the Giants have dominated the series, posting a 6-2 mark in eight meetings, and own a lopsided 79-41-2 all-time edge.
Log on now to Sportsbook.com for all of this weekend’s football games. And don’t forget to make your picks for the $100,000 Perfect Parlay; just because someone won the six figure payday a few weeks back, doesn’t mean you can’t win it this weekend.
NFL: Oddmakers allowing Dolphins to play respect card2009-07-28The five year win pattern of the Miami Dolphins resembles most bettors wagering accounts over the same period. Starting in 2004, four wins, nine wins (2005), six wins (2006), one win (2007), followed up with last year’s miraculous turnaround that led to division crown and 11 conquests. The oddsmakers at Sprotsbook.com were so unimpressed with last year’s performance; they have established them as Un7.5 total wins for 2009 campaign.
You can’t blame the messenger for setting the numbers; all they can do is look at the facts and make a highly educated prediction. And while 50 percent of the football public outside of Dade County still thinks the Miami’s head coach’s name is Tony Soprano, from the TV show, the real coach, Tony Sparano, can utilize the “lack of respect card”, placing it in his back pocket this August as motivational tool. They question is, are the oddmakers wrong?
A team coming off a 15-loss season should be happy to beat almost anyone to get back on track. Last year’s complete turnaround was surrounded by many factors. The first was the hiring of Bill Parcells, who set a different tone in South Beach; he wanted football players committed to winning, not just earning a living. The hiring of Sparano was the right fit, as his contagious enthusiasm and positive belief system filtered throughout the locker room, which was less antagonistic to Parcells often acidic tongue. Lastly, Chad Pennington had been discarded by the Jets and had a chip on his shoulder the length of Ocean Drive.
After losing four of first six contests, Miami started to sizzle like a Caribbean nightclub. The Dolphins won nine of last 10 regular season games (5-5 ATS), including last five, of which four were on the road. A closer look reveals mostly beatable teams and Miami did a splendid job in defeating those clubs. In there last 10 contests, only New England and the Jets had winning records at the end of the season. With plenty of hype surrounding a rebuilt Patriots team, the Fins were squashed at home 48-28 as two-point underdogs. Miami won the division beating Jets team in free fall 24-17, in the last game of the regular season. Certainly noteworthy accomplishment given they manufactured one win the previous year; however they were the better team at that point, as customary +3 points on the road proved.
This year’s schedule looks like a massive upgrade, starting with trading the NFC West for the much better NFC South. Only Tampa Bay looks to be worse than .500 team in this group. In the AFC, the West contingent of four teams has been exchanged for arguably the best division in football, the AFC South. This switch of divisions alone could account for two or three losses, even if Miami plays at the same level as last season.
New England is presumed to be better with Tom Brady back in control and Buffalo and the Jets are thought to be similar, with the Bills a touch better and the Flyboys a little worse.
Miami would not seem to have the same luxury of slow start, followed by big finish. The first three games are at Atlanta, home to Indianapolis on Monday night, followed by a short week cross-country journey to San Diego. The final six encounters read this way in exact order - @ Buffalo, New England, @ Jacksonville, @ Tennessee, Houston and Pittsburgh. Depending on various factors, the Dolphins might only be favored twice in last six tilts.
Pick up any fantasy football magazine and you will have a difficult time finding Chad Pennington in the upper half of quarterback ratings. True, winning and fantasy football are completely different, however does anyone really expect Pennington to improve? Since becoming a starter in the Big Apple in 2002, Pennington has averaged 15 starts in the even-numbered years, in the three odd-numbered years, less than seven.
Ronnie Brown should have greater offensive impact as running back and the offensive line should be even more cohesive with a year under their belts. The wide receivers are average, as Ted Ginn Jr. has shown little improvement as route runner, though Pennington and tight end Anthony Fasano clicked.
The Fins defense improved greatly last season to 15th in total defense and ninth in points allowed. With a schedule of much better offenses, linebacker Joey Porter will have to lead the younger players by example. Porter was revitalized in playing 3-4 defense again and Jason Ferguson has to be the anchor at nose tackle. The secondary allowed yards (227.5, ranked 25th), but yanked 18 interceptions out of the air.
Turnover margin is the single biggest influence on any team and Miami was No.1 last year at +17. It is infrequently teams come anywhere close to replicating high turnover figures the next season. Recent examples include the unbeaten Patriots going from +16 to +1, as record fell from 16-0 to 11-5. In 2006, Baltimore had 13-3 record and +15 in turnover margin. The following season, racked with injuries, a complete reversal to -17 and 5-11 campaign. Seattle was a 10-6 division champion in 2007, with +10 on turnovers, last season, -7 and dismal 4-12 season.
Just after 2010 arrives, we’ll have clear idea how right or wrong the oddsmakers were on Miami, here is one vote for the Under, with 7-9 season for disappointed Dolphins fans.